Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Monday, January 21, 2008
Gold to test resistance
Therefore, expect gold to test the resistance levels and then correct lower subsequently. Supports are at $ 855.it may be support are at $837 Resistances are at $895, 902 & 915.
i am recommnted buy on deep-$ 853-&861
i am recommnted buy on deep-$ 853-&861
Sunday, January 20, 2008
soyabeen bullish
I expect soybean for February delivery to touch Rs 2,200 per quintal in next 10 days, while soyoil February contract may hit Rs 610-Rs 620 per 10 kg,”
Gold to hit $1000/oz by quarter end:
Friday, January 4, 2008
MCX Gold February 4 feb.
MCX Gold February
The most active February Gold futures hit all time
high of 11014 before closing at 10975. Overall Feb
Gold gained Rs.96 from previous close. After an
initial correction till 10845, prices resumed bull run
breaking previous day’s high of 10920. Overall trend
remains extremely bullish with resistances at 11014
and then 11125. Supports are seen at 10940 then
10830.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
What's Driving Gold Higher?
AS THE END OF 2007 fades into history – and a time when Gold Prices look poised to move through their record high of Jan. 1980 as global financial volatility and uncertainty have never been higher – it is time to look at what’s driving the Gold Market now and what lies ahead in 2008.
There is no doubt that during 2007 the Gold Market evolved from one suffering persistent undermining by global monetary authorities. Over the last 25 years sales and accelerated supply dented its capacity to rise, but those attacks began to fade noticeably last year, as the credibility of gold's replacement – the US Dollar – began to decay visibly.
Now the Gold Market has garnered a new respect, if only amongst both private and fund investors rather than official monetary policy makers. And by funds, we are not referring to the short-term speculators but to long-term holders, primarily of gold Exchange Traded Fund shares. While they do not actually own any gold when they Buy Gold in this way, it is primarily investor demand that will drive the demand for gold in 2008 because of the enviable position it holds, which we describe below. Add to the above factors the meteoric rise of the oil price, and we saw gold beginning to act as a counter for dropping confidence in the monetary system attracting more investment demand. Such decay was amply described by and ex-Treasury Official in an essay, in which he pre-ambled as follows.Gold: More than a Crisis of Confidence! "Many Dollar holders, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds as well as private investors, clearly want to diversify into other currencies. Since foreign Dollar holdings total at least $20,000 billion, even a modest realization of these desires could produce a free fall of the US currency and huge disruptions to markets and the world economy. Fears of such an outcome have risen sharply in both official circles and the markets. "However, none of the countries into whose currencies the diversification would take place want to receive these inflows. The Eurozone, the UK, Canada, and Australia among others believe that their exchange rates are already substantially overvalued. But China and most of the other Asian countries continue to intervene heavily to keep their currencies from rising significantly. Hence, further large shifts out of the Dollar could indeed push the floating currencies far above their equilibrium levels, generating new imbalances and a possibly severe slowdown in global growth." This is the atmosphere that has driven investment demand for gold and in turn the.Gold Price. We expect that in the year ahead, this climate will deteriorate substantially driving investment demand to new record levels. But let’s be clear about this, we are not talking of a simple rising of investment demand; we believe we will see a large acceleration in that demand taking it well through four figures in tonnage terms as well as in price terms. At each stage of its growth it will attract bigger players as the liquidity of these shares gives comfort to the larger players. Indeed, the total holdings of such funds are already equal to the holding of the top echelon of Central Bank holdings, even above that of China having moved into the equivalent of seventh place and likely to move into sixth place next year ahead of Switzerland. We have said in the past that a level of 3,000 tonnes holdings by the Gold ETF's is possible and will attract the biggest players. At the time many thought it was far fetched, but as total holdings by such funds (including the Canadian equivalent) crosses the 860 tonne level, such forecasts are proving more than credible. Bear in mind that the huge financial power of the mutual and pension fund industries is now able to invest in gold – albeit indirectly and with little or no property rights – these shares. This buying power, and its resulting pressure on the,Gold Price, was simply not present before the creation of the gold ETFs. Each day this demand grows as new gold investors come into this market and there is a massive amount out there still to come in. Mutual funds before the ETF concept were not permitted to hold gold. The nearest they could come to that was to own gold mining shares, along with all their inherent risks. Now this investing power is unleashed, needing only the education that gold is available. It is this power that is becoming the main driving force behind the rise in the.Gold Price. As you can see in the table below, courtesy of Fortis Bank's twice-annual Yellow Book, investment demand only has to exceed 123 tonnes for the year ending 31 Dec. 2007 for the Gold Market to be in deficit. The last week of 2007 saw 17 tonnes added to the ETF gold funds. We want you to note well supply less demand and the change in de-hedging expected.
There is no doubt that during 2007 the Gold Market evolved from one suffering persistent undermining by global monetary authorities. Over the last 25 years sales and accelerated supply dented its capacity to rise, but those attacks began to fade noticeably last year, as the credibility of gold's replacement – the US Dollar – began to decay visibly.
Now the Gold Market has garnered a new respect, if only amongst both private and fund investors rather than official monetary policy makers. And by funds, we are not referring to the short-term speculators but to long-term holders, primarily of gold Exchange Traded Fund shares. While they do not actually own any gold when they Buy Gold in this way, it is primarily investor demand that will drive the demand for gold in 2008 because of the enviable position it holds, which we describe below. Add to the above factors the meteoric rise of the oil price, and we saw gold beginning to act as a counter for dropping confidence in the monetary system attracting more investment demand. Such decay was amply described by and ex-Treasury Official in an essay, in which he pre-ambled as follows.Gold: More than a Crisis of Confidence! "Many Dollar holders, including central banks and sovereign wealth funds as well as private investors, clearly want to diversify into other currencies. Since foreign Dollar holdings total at least $20,000 billion, even a modest realization of these desires could produce a free fall of the US currency and huge disruptions to markets and the world economy. Fears of such an outcome have risen sharply in both official circles and the markets. "However, none of the countries into whose currencies the diversification would take place want to receive these inflows. The Eurozone, the UK, Canada, and Australia among others believe that their exchange rates are already substantially overvalued. But China and most of the other Asian countries continue to intervene heavily to keep their currencies from rising significantly. Hence, further large shifts out of the Dollar could indeed push the floating currencies far above their equilibrium levels, generating new imbalances and a possibly severe slowdown in global growth." This is the atmosphere that has driven investment demand for gold and in turn the.Gold Price. We expect that in the year ahead, this climate will deteriorate substantially driving investment demand to new record levels. But let’s be clear about this, we are not talking of a simple rising of investment demand; we believe we will see a large acceleration in that demand taking it well through four figures in tonnage terms as well as in price terms. At each stage of its growth it will attract bigger players as the liquidity of these shares gives comfort to the larger players. Indeed, the total holdings of such funds are already equal to the holding of the top echelon of Central Bank holdings, even above that of China having moved into the equivalent of seventh place and likely to move into sixth place next year ahead of Switzerland. We have said in the past that a level of 3,000 tonnes holdings by the Gold ETF's is possible and will attract the biggest players. At the time many thought it was far fetched, but as total holdings by such funds (including the Canadian equivalent) crosses the 860 tonne level, such forecasts are proving more than credible. Bear in mind that the huge financial power of the mutual and pension fund industries is now able to invest in gold – albeit indirectly and with little or no property rights – these shares. This buying power, and its resulting pressure on the,Gold Price, was simply not present before the creation of the gold ETFs. Each day this demand grows as new gold investors come into this market and there is a massive amount out there still to come in. Mutual funds before the ETF concept were not permitted to hold gold. The nearest they could come to that was to own gold mining shares, along with all their inherent risks. Now this investing power is unleashed, needing only the education that gold is available. It is this power that is becoming the main driving force behind the rise in the.Gold Price. As you can see in the table below, courtesy of Fortis Bank's twice-annual Yellow Book, investment demand only has to exceed 123 tonnes for the year ending 31 Dec. 2007 for the Gold Market to be in deficit. The last week of 2007 saw 17 tonnes added to the ETF gold funds. We want you to note well supply less demand and the change in de-hedging expected.
I think there's a chance Gold could hit $885 in the next two weeks
1. Crude is making a run for $100, the dollar is headed lower, and geopolitical tensions are building. It's very possible gold can get to $1,000 this year.''
2. Oil is back on its horse. Gold is going to bolt.''
3. Political instability in south Asia and high energy prices are also spurring investments in gold
4.Crude oil rose after Nigerian militants killed 12 people in the southern oil city of Port Harcourt yesterday. Nigeria is Africa's biggest petroleum producer.
5.Oil continues to pressure the record highs set in Nov on speculation that data will show that US inventories fell for a seventh consecutive week. Additionally, concerns about the escalating violence in Nigeria, Africa's largest producer, will disrupt output. Brent spot crude is within striking distance of the 96.45/55 highs. A break of this level would put oil back on track for a challenge of the $100 psychological barrier. Such a move would also help gold on its march higher.
2. Oil is back on its horse. Gold is going to bolt.''
3. Political instability in south Asia and high energy prices are also spurring investments in gold
4.Crude oil rose after Nigerian militants killed 12 people in the southern oil city of Port Harcourt yesterday. Nigeria is Africa's biggest petroleum producer.
5.Oil continues to pressure the record highs set in Nov on speculation that data will show that US inventories fell for a seventh consecutive week. Additionally, concerns about the escalating violence in Nigeria, Africa's largest producer, will disrupt output. Brent spot crude is within striking distance of the 96.45/55 highs. A break of this level would put oil back on track for a challenge of the $100 psychological barrier. Such a move would also help gold on its march higher.
Following are key dates in gold's trading history since the early 1970s:
August, 1971 - President Richard Nixon takes the dollar off the gold standard, which had been in place with minor modifications since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944 fixed the onversion rate for one Troy ounce of gold at US$35.
August, 1972 - United States devalues dollar to US$38 per ounce of gold.
March, 1973 - Most major countries adopt floating exchange rate system.
May, 1973 - United States devalues dollar to US$42.22 per ounce.
January, 1980 - Gold hits record high at US$850 per ounce. High inflation because of strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution, which prompted investors to move into the metal.
August, 1999 - Gold falls to all-time low at US$251.70 on worries about central banks reducing reserves of gold bullion and mining companies selling gold in forward markets to protect against falling prices.
October 1999 - Gold surges to two-year high at US$338 after agreement to limit gold sales by 15 European central banks. Market sentiment toward gold begins to turn more positive.
February, 2003 - Gold reaches 4-1/2-year high on safe-haven buying in runup to conflict with Iraq.
December, 2003-January, 2004 - Gold breaks above US$400, reaching levels last traded in 1988. Investors increasingly buy gold as risk insurance for portfolios.
November, 2005 - Spot gold breaches US$500 for the first time since December, 1987, when spot hit US$502.97.
April 11, 2006 - Gold prices surpass the next big level of US$600, the highest since December, 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and geopolitical worries.
May 12, 2006 - Gold prices peak at US$730 an ounce, the highest level since January, 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and political tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
June 14, 2006 - Falls 26% to US$543 from its 26-year peak after investors and speculators sold out of commodity positions.
Nov. 7, 2007 - Spot gold hits a 28-year high of US$845.40 an ounce.
Jan. 2, 2007 - Gold breaks above its record high to trade at US$859.30 per ounce by 1606 GMT.
August, 1972 - United States devalues dollar to US$38 per ounce of gold.
March, 1973 - Most major countries adopt floating exchange rate system.
May, 1973 - United States devalues dollar to US$42.22 per ounce.
January, 1980 - Gold hits record high at US$850 per ounce. High inflation because of strong oil prices, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan and the impact of the Iranian revolution, which prompted investors to move into the metal.
August, 1999 - Gold falls to all-time low at US$251.70 on worries about central banks reducing reserves of gold bullion and mining companies selling gold in forward markets to protect against falling prices.
October 1999 - Gold surges to two-year high at US$338 after agreement to limit gold sales by 15 European central banks. Market sentiment toward gold begins to turn more positive.
February, 2003 - Gold reaches 4-1/2-year high on safe-haven buying in runup to conflict with Iraq.
December, 2003-January, 2004 - Gold breaks above US$400, reaching levels last traded in 1988. Investors increasingly buy gold as risk insurance for portfolios.
November, 2005 - Spot gold breaches US$500 for the first time since December, 1987, when spot hit US$502.97.
April 11, 2006 - Gold prices surpass the next big level of US$600, the highest since December, 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and geopolitical worries.
May 12, 2006 - Gold prices peak at US$730 an ounce, the highest level since January, 1980, with funds and investors pouring money into commodities on a weak dollar, firm oil prices and political tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions.
June 14, 2006 - Falls 26% to US$543 from its 26-year peak after investors and speculators sold out of commodity positions.
Nov. 7, 2007 - Spot gold hits a 28-year high of US$845.40 an ounce.
Jan. 2, 2007 - Gold breaks above its record high to trade at US$859.30 per ounce by 1606 GMT.
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